From MrSwing.com
U.S. Morning Call for Friday, May 2, 2008
Larry Swing - May 2, 2008
Overnight U.S. Stock News
- June S&Ps this morning
are trading +1.30 points as the market treads water ahead of today's
April unemployment report. The US stock market yesterday moved higher
throughout the day and closed sharply higher (Dow +1.48%, S&P 500
+1.71%, Nasdaq Composite +2.81%).
- Bullish factors for
stock prices yesterday included (1) the stronger than expected Apr ISM
manufacturing index, (2) the rally in financial companies after
Kuwait's $250 billion sovereign wealth fund said it may increase its
stakes in Merrill Lynch and Citigroup as it seeks investments in US and
European companies battered by subprime-mortgage related losses, (3)
the 13% advance in MBIA as the world's largest bond insurer said it has
enough capital to retain its AAA rating, (4) the 4.6% gain in Intel as
the world's largest chipmaker is stepping up production to meet
higher-than-expected demand for Atom, a new processor for low-cost
portable computers, and (5) the 3.7% gain in Home Depot as the world's
biggest home-improvement retailer will eliminate 1,300 jobs, close 15
stores and scrap plans for 50 others as the company tries to catch up
to Lowe's in customer service.
- Bearish factors for
stock prices yesterday included (1) the larger than expected rise in
weekly unemployment claims and the rise in continuing claims to a
4-year high of 3.019 million, (2) the 3.6% fall in Exxon as the largest
oil producer in the US said Q1 net income rose to $10.9 billion or
$2.03 a share, lower than the $2.13 a share that analysts were
expecting, (3) the 6.1% loss in Apache as the Houston based oil and
natural gas producer that operates on five continents reported Q1
profit of $2,99 a share, 3 cents below analysts' estimates, and (4) the
sell-off in mining stocks as Freeport-McMoran fell 5.1% and Newmont
Mining lost 2.2% as gold prices fell to a 4-month low.
-
Sun Microsystems (JAVA) is down -14% in European trading this morning
after the company reported a loss of 4 cents per share and announced a
cost-cutting plan involving reducing its staff by 2,500 employees,
which is 7% of the total staff.
- Morgan Stanley (MS) is
down -0.4% in European trading this morning after Merrill Lynch cut its
EPS estimate for Morgan Stanley to 80 cents from $1.11 per share and
placed a short-term sell on the stock.
- ComScore (SCOR)
rallied 14% in after-hours trading yesterday as the supplier of data on
Internet companies said 2008 EPS will be at least 75 cents a share,
exceeding analysts' estimates of 66 cents a share.
-
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) dropped nearly 4% in after-hours trading yesterday
as the casino company said Q1 profit dropped because of bigger losses
at its baccarat and blackjack tables and because of softness in its Las
Vegas business because of the economy.
Today's U.S. Market Focus
-
June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading -0.005 ticks. June
T-notes yesterday rallied early but reversed course late morning and
traded lower the remainder of the day to close down -2.5 ticks. Bearish
factors for T-note prices yesterday included (1) the rally in the stock
market, which drew capital from Treasuries, (2) the comment from the
CEO of MBIA, the world's largest bond insurer, that it has enough
capital to retain its AAA rating, (3) the bigger than expected rise in
the Mar PCE core deflator (+0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y versus expectations
of +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y), (4) the stronger than expected Apr ISM
manufacturing index (unchanged at 48.6 versus expectations of -0.6 to
48.0), and (5) the unexpected rise in the Apr ISM prices paid to a
4-year high (+1.0 to 84.5 versus expectations of unchanged at 83.5).
Bullish factors for T-note prices yesterday included (1) the larger
than expected jump in weekly unemployment claims (+35,000 to 380,000
versus expectations of +20,000 to 365,000 and continuing claims +74,000
to a 4-year high of 3.019 mln versus expectations of +5,000 to 2,950
mln), and (2) the bigger than expected decrease in construction
spending for Mar (-1.1% versus expectations of -0.7%).
-
The dollar is trading mildly higher this morning with the dollar/yen up
+0.30 yen the euro/dollar down -0.10 cents. The dollar index yesterday
rallied to a 5-week high. Bullish factors for the dollar yesterday
included (1) increased speculation that the Fed may pause or stop its
current rate-cutting cycle, (2) the comment from Treasury Secretary
Paulson that the credit crisis is "closer to the end" than the
beginning, and (3) the stronger-than-expected April ISM manufacturing
index. Bearish factors for the dollar yesterday included (1) the
larger-than-expected rise in weekly unemployment claims, and (2) the
statement from Kuwait's Finance Minister that some Gulf Cooperation
Council States are considering dropping their currency pegs to the
dollar.
- June crude oil prices this morning are
trading +63 cents a barrel and June gasoline is trading +1.13 cents a
gallon. June crude oil prices yesterday moved lower and closed down
-$0.94 a barrel and June gasoline closed -2.810 cents a gallon, both at
2-week lows. June crude oil has sold off by -$9.93 (8.3%) in the last
three sessions. Bearish factors for crude oil prices yesterday included
(1) the ending of the 8-day strike by Nigerian oil workers against
Exxon-Mobil that halted production of 860,000 bbl of crude oil a day,
(2) the rally in the dollar index to a 5-week high, (3) carryover
weakness from natural gas prices which fell after the Energy Department
showed a larger than expected rise in natural gas stockpiles, and (4)
economic concerns as US weekly unemployment claims rose more than
forecast
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports
Earnings
reports (confirmed releases for companies with market caps above $10.0
bln listed by mkt cap): BRK-Berkshire Hathaway (BEST earnings consensus
$1,429.67 per share), CVX-Chevron (2.42), VIA-Viacom (.42), DUK-Duke
Energy (.31), PPL-PPL Corp. (.63), AMT-American Tower (.08), SRE-Sempra
Energy (.92), WY-Weyerhaeuser (-.24), ED-Consolidated Edison (1.00),
ICE-IntercontinentalExchange (1.25), AEE-Ameren (.53), WPO-Washington
Post (6.58), BWA-BorgWarner (.66), NI-Nisource (.76), KBR-KBR (.34),
LZ-Lubrizol (1.07), EAS-Energy East (.86), AIV-Apartment Investment and
Management (-.53), SFI-Istar Financial (.81), WHQ-W-H Energy Services
(1.20), AWI-Armstrong World Industries (.34), OB-OneBeacon Insurance
Group (.42), ALFA-Alfa Corp. (.30), HRP-HRPT Properties (.13),
MGLN-Magellan Health Services (.43), REGN-Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
(-.32)
Global Financial Calendar
| Friday 5/2/2008 |
|
|
| United States |
| 0830 ET |
Apr
nonfarm payrolls expected -75,000, Mar -80,000. Apr unemployment rate
expected +0.1 to 5.2%, Mar +0.3 to 5.1%. Apr manufacturing payrolls
expected -35,000, Mar -48,000. Apr avg hourly earnings expected +0.3%
m/m and +3.6% y/y, Mar +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y. Apr avg weekly hours
expected 0.1 to 33.7 hours, Mar +0.1 to 33.8. |
| 1000 ET |
Mar factory orders expected +0.2%, Feb 1.3%. |
| Germany |
| 0200 ET |
Mar German retail sales expected +0.6% m/m and �2.3% y/y, Feb 0.7% m/m and 0.3% y/y. |
| 0400 ET |
Final revision Apr German PMI manufacturing expected unchanged at 53.6. |
| France |
| 0245 ET |
Mar French producer prices expected +0.5% m/m and +5.1% y/y, Feb +0.4% m/m and +4.9% y/y. |
| 0350 ET |
Final revision Apr French PMI manufacturing expected unchanged at 51.5. |
| Euro-Zone |
| 0400 ET |
Final revision Apr Euro-Zone PMI manufacturing expected unchanged at 50.8. |
| United Kingdom |
| 0430 ET |
Apr UK PMI construction expected 0.2 to 47.0. |
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