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Monday Morning Musings

best of financial blogs online trading

Jordan Kahn, CFA

Jordan Kahn, CFA of In The Money

Mar 24, 2008

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The market is getting a strong boost in early trading on the heels of no negative financial headlines over the weekend, and some positive developments on the housing front this morning.

JPM said it may raise its offer for Bear Stearns (BSC) from $2 to $10. BSC is trading up over 100% on the news, and has been as high as $13.

insert.a.chart.BSC

The Federal Housing Finance Board raised the home loan bank limit, which should help boost the housing market and provide liquidity to the ailing mortgage sector. Also, existing home sales came in better than expected this morning, and prices actually rose for the first time in 7 months. All of this has the housing index trading +5.2% higher so far.

You know how I always say that I don't like strong market opens. Given that I felt we bottomed last week, I am hoping that this early strength holds. But I would prefer it to settle down for a while and rally towards the close. Right now, the Dow is already up +215 points.

Asian was mostly higher overnight, on the heels of a positive election in Taiwan. And the Yen is nicely lower, which helps. Oil is down a little, near $101. And the 10-year yield is up 16 basis points to 3.49%.

Gold is also higher, after a huge drop last week. The CRB Commodity Index fell -8.3% last week, which was its largest weekly decline in its 52 year history. Wow. That tells me that there is likely more downside to come in the commodity complex, after a requisite bounce.

by Jordan Kahn, CFA (In The Money )

Disclaimer:

Please note that charts and commentary provided by the moderator are for educational purposes only. Any trades placed upon reliance on the moderator’s charts or information is taken at your own risk for your own account. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. While there is great potential for reward trading stocks, futures and options, there is also substantial risk of loss and you must decide your own suitability to trade. Future trading results can never be guaranteed. This is not an offer to buy or sell stock, futures, options or commodity interests.

Most trading systems are based on historical formulas which have worked in the past. However, what has happened before may or may not happen again. You can lose all your money trading stocks, futures, and options and you must decide your own suitability as to whether or not to trade. Only trade with true risk capital you can afford to lose. Only trade markets you can properly afford to trade. Properly funded trading accounts typically perform better than those that are not. Never risk more than 2-3% of your account on any one trade. Always define your risk before entering a trade and place a stop to limit your risk.

There are no guarantees or certainties in trading. Trading involves hard work, risk, discipline and the ability to follow rules and trade through any tough periods during a system’s draw downs. If you are looking for a guarantee, trading is probably not for you. Most people lose money trading. One of the reasons is that they lack discipline and are unable to be consistent. A system can help you become consistent. Ironically, worrying about the monetary aspect of trading can contribute to and cause a trader to make trading errors. Therefore, it is important to only trade with true risk capital.


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