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Techs Take Center Stage This Week; Earnings Preview: Apple, Yahoo!, Baidu.com

best of financial blogs online trading

Brooks McFeely

Brooks McFeely of The After-Hours Trading Community

Jul 19, 2008

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Bullish investors got their relief rally last week after losses from financial companies proved to be not as bad as many analysts were predicting. However, the Nasdaq didn't partake in the rally after Google Inc. (GOOG) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) disappointed investors with their quarterly results.

The Nasdaq may make up some of its lost ground this week as we hear results from a number of technology heavy-hitters including Apple Inc. (AAPL), Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) , Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU), and Amazon.com (AMZN).

insert.a.chart.MSFT

On Monday, financial results continue to trickle in from American Express Co. (AXP) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC), but the one to watch is Apple Inc. Apple shares fell to their lowest level since April on Friday after Sony Ericsson's quarterly profit tumbled 97% and it said that it sees challenging times ahead. Analysts are expecting Apple to report a 17% increase in quarterly profit to $1.08 per share on revenue of $7.36 billion. In the near-term, the performance is firm in a narrowing or reversing trend, cutting back its evening performance in next day trade in the last three of four quarters. On April 23, Apple fell 0.7% in after-hours trade after beating on Q2 but setting Q3 earnings guidance below the analyst consensus. The stock reversed the next day, ending higher by 3.7%.

All eyes will be on Yahoo on Tuesday after the market closes. Shares have been quite volatile over the past few months as talks of a deal with Microsoft fizzled, resulting in attempts by Carl Icahn to oust the current Board of Directors. This is a stock that longs need to be wary of. Yahoo is mixed in the near-term, widening once, narrowing twice, and reversing course once between the sessions in the last four quarters. The longer-term trend is mixed as well, with eight narrower, one reversing, and seven wider next-day moves. On April 22, Yahoo rose 0.5% in after-hours trading after beating on Q1. Shares reversed course the following day, ending lower by 1.6%.

Baidu.com is set to release its second quarter results after the bell Wednesday. Again, another stock for longs to be wary of going into the regular session. The stock shows a tendency to narrow or reverse its next-day share move following its post-earnings share performance in the preceding evening session. It's done so eight times and widened three times in the quarters we've tracked. Near term, it's narrowed its move for three of the last four quarters; it widened last quarter.

Amazon.com, Inc. will also report after the close on Wednesday. The stock has been one of the more consistent session-to-session performers within MidnightTrader.com's earnings database. The stock has compiled wider next-day closing levels following 15 of its last 17 after-hours earnings events. The near-term events strongly favor the widening trend, crossing more aggressive next-day trade in five of its last quarters.

On Thursday, Level 3 Communications (LVLT) may be a nice stock to play if you are going long. The issue is favoring a widening pattern between the sessions, seeing eight wider moves, four narrowing events and one trade where the stock did not hit any extended-hours matches. In the near-term, it is firm in a widening trend, doing so in five of the last six quarterly earnings events. On April 23, shares jumped 17.7% in pre-market trading after its Q1 revenue beat but earnings missed by a penny a share. The stock widened in the regular session to finish up 22.8%.

by Brooks McFeely (The After-Hours Trading Community)

Disclaimer:

Please note that charts and commentary provided by the moderator are for educational purposes only. Any trades placed upon reliance on the moderator’s charts or information is taken at your own risk for your own account. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. While there is great potential for reward trading stocks, futures and options, there is also substantial risk of loss and you must decide your own suitability to trade. Future trading results can never be guaranteed. This is not an offer to buy or sell stock, futures, options or commodity interests.

Most trading systems are based on historical formulas which have worked in the past. However, what has happened before may or may not happen again. You can lose all your money trading stocks, futures, and options and you must decide your own suitability as to whether or not to trade. Only trade with true risk capital you can afford to lose. Only trade markets you can properly afford to trade. Properly funded trading accounts typically perform better than those that are not. Never risk more than 2-3% of your account on any one trade. Always define your risk before entering a trade and place a stop to limit your risk.

There are no guarantees or certainties in trading. Trading involves hard work, risk, discipline and the ability to follow rules and trade through any tough periods during a system’s draw downs. If you are looking for a guarantee, trading is probably not for you. Most people lose money trading. One of the reasons is that they lack discipline and are unable to be consistent. A system can help you become consistent. Ironically, worrying about the monetary aspect of trading can contribute to and cause a trader to make trading errors. Therefore, it is important to only trade with true risk capital.

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