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I have received a number of questions about the subscriber newsletter and I thought this might be a good time to address them.
First, thanks to all who have subscribed. I have been extremely pleased by the response to date. I appreciate all the support and am particularly encouraged by the fact that so far the renewal rate has been 100%.
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In terms of content, the Sunday format has already been standardized. The typical Sunday issue is six pages long and has the following sections:
The Week in Review – my thoughts on what constituted the important macroeconomic, fundamental, and technical news for the past week
The Week Ahead: What to Look For – includes suggestions on earnings to watch, important government data releases, critical technical support/resistance levels, etc.
Market Sentiment Update – a discussion of the readings and related implications from two of my proprietary sentiment indicators, the Options Sentiment Indicator (OSI) and the Aggregate Market Sentiment Indicator (AMSI). In some respects these two indicators are descendants of the VIX Weekly Sentiment Indicator (VWSI)
Asset Class Outlook – where I update my outlook over the short-term (1-3 weeks), intermediate-term (1-3 months), and long-term (6-12 months) time frames for ten important asset classes that cover US equities, foreign equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities
Current Investment Thesis – my take on what is driving the markets, in which direction, and why
VIX and More Focus Model Portfolios – three different model portfolios (Aggressive Trader, Growth, and Foreign Growth) consisting of 5-7 stocks each that have returns of +18.0%, -2.7%, and +2.1% since the March 30, 2008 inception
Stock of the Week – a single weekly stock selection that has a cumulative return of +48.5% since the initial March 30th selection
The Wednesday issue is much more like the blog, but with a more detailed analysis and a place where I offer more in terms of conclusions and takeaways. It generally runs 4-6 pages and has three standard sections:
Market Commentary – updates my thinking as laid out on Sunday
Market Sentiment Update – similar to the Sunday section, but may drill down more on specific issues, such as volatility, put to call data, market breadth, volume, etc.
Volatility-Based Sector Rotation Model – one of my current research interests is using volatility to time trades on a variety of ETFs, including sectors, geographies, commodities, and currencies. This is not a model portfolio, per se, but I have been providing commentary on what the model is suggesting in terms of sector rotation strategies, what geographies to be long or short in, as well as plays in commodities and currencies
In addition to the three standard sections, Wednesday usually includes several feature sections where the subject matter varies from week to week. Some of the features from the past three issues include:
The VIX:VXV Ratio Continues to Perform Well
NYSE Total Volume Suggests Rally May Have Run Out of Steam
‘Stock of the Week’ Averages Up 5% in One Day
CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio Remains Bullish (a shorter, updated version of this post went up on the blog a week later)
Please note
that charts and commentary provided by the moderator are for educational
purposes only. Any trades placed upon reliance on the moderator’s
charts or information is taken at your own risk for your own account.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. While there is great
potential for reward trading stocks, futures and options, there is also
substantial risk of loss and you must decide your own suitability to trade.
Future trading results can never be guaranteed. This is not an offer to
buy or sell stock, futures, options or commodity interests.
Most trading
systems are based on historical formulas which have worked in the past.
However, what has happened before may or may not happen again. You can
lose all your money trading stocks, futures, and options and you must
decide your own suitability as to whether or not to trade. Only trade
with true risk capital you can afford to lose. Only trade markets you
can properly afford to trade. Properly funded trading accounts typically
perform better than those that are not. Never risk more than 2-3% of your
account on any one trade. Always define your risk before entering a trade
and place a stop to limit your risk.
There are
no guarantees or certainties in trading. Trading involves hard work, risk,
discipline and the ability to follow rules and trade through any tough
periods during a system’s draw downs. If you are looking for a guarantee,
trading is probably not for you. Most people lose money trading. One of
the reasons is that they lack discipline and are unable to be consistent.
A system can help you become consistent. Ironically, worrying about the
monetary aspect of trading can contribute to and cause a trader to make
trading errors. Therefore, it is important to only trade with true risk
capital.
