|
Special Opportunities quarterly review
Yesterday I gave an overview of the results for the 2nd quarter of the Income Portfolio I track on this site. Today I will do the same for the Special Opportunities Portfolio. First a cut-and-paste of the caveats: I have named this the Special Opportunities Portfolio because it really does not have a specific investment style. There is growth, value, international and turn around style of stock selections in the portfolio. The one thing most of the stocks have in common is a tendency towards smaller capitalization, generally under $2 billion. My goal is to find stocks with little following, little news and are great opportunities. For international companies, I lean towards South America because I have some interest and knowledge of the region. I keep these portfolios of stocks I write about as a counter point to all of the financial magazines and websites that give multitudes of stock recommendations and never follow up. I closely follow the stocks in my portfolio as well as looking for new additions. With this site I try to keep readers up with the news and my results. As I noted yesterday, for the the entire quarter, the market averages were only down slightly. It feels much worse after the results of the last few weeks. My portfolio ended in positive territory for the quarter with a 0.47% gain on share price and 0.25% in dividends for a total postive return of 0.72%. I guess I will call a very small positive return for the quarter a moral victory. Three stocks led the loser bracket: VeraSun Energy (VSE: 4.21 -0.25 -5.61%) off 44%, AFP BBVA Provida (PVD: 24.95 -0.37 -1.46%) down 28% and Copa Holdings (CPA: 26.56 -0.65 -2.39%) back treading 27%. I think most are familiar with the problems in the corn based ethanol business and VSE is the largest producer of ethanol. I think the market is over reacting and the company will finish the year nicely profitable and have a banner 2009. PVD has suffered from changes in Chile’s pension laws limiting the company’s ability to grow. I have dropped the company from the portfolio starting the 3rd quarter. Copa is a very profitable Latin America based airline that has had it’s stock price take a hit due to high fuel prices. This company will continue to grow revenues and profits will follow, if somewhat delayed. On the winner side there are again 3 stocks that stand out: Tetra Technologies (TTI: 22.13 -1.05 -4.53%) gained almost 50%, KHD Humboldt Wedag (KHD: 26.86 -1.61 -5.66%) up 29% and Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELP: 19.86 +0.23 +1.17%) returned a positive 30% including a nice 3% dividend. TTI benefited from the double positive of rebuilding their profit base and being in the hot oil services sector. Profit growth should be strong for at least the remainder of the year. KHD is a small cap infrastructure play doing business in Asia, Russia and the Middle East. The market has not yet discovered this growth gem and it could easily be a $50 stock soon. ELP is an electric utility that is a nice conservative play on the overall growth in Brazil. Several of the stocks in the portfolio, (GIGM: 10.71 +0.15 +1.42%) and (HW: 10.25 -0.19 -1.82%) come to mind, are well below the value where I believe they should currently be trading. I want to add a few more stocks and I have been looking at a couple of South American compaines that have excellent prospects. Note: I currently have long positions in VSE, KHD, GIGM and HW. by Tim Plaehn (Investing Thoughts) Disclaimer: Please note that charts and commentary provided by the moderator are for educational purposes only. Any trades placed upon reliance on the moderator’s charts or information is taken at your own risk for your own account. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. While there is great potential for reward trading stocks, futures and options, there is also substantial risk of loss and you must decide your own suitability to trade. Future trading results can never be guaranteed. This is not an offer to buy or sell stock, futures, options or commodity interests. Most trading systems are based on historical formulas which have worked in the past. However, what has happened before may or may not happen again. You can lose all your money trading stocks, futures, and options and you must decide your own suitability as to whether or not to trade. Only trade with true risk capital you can afford to lose. Only trade markets you can properly afford to trade. Properly funded trading accounts typically perform better than those that are not. Never risk more than 2-3% of your account on any one trade. Always define your risk before entering a trade and place a stop to limit your risk. There are no guarantees or certainties in trading. Trading involves hard work, risk, discipline and the ability to follow rules and trade through any tough periods during a system’s draw downs. If you are looking for a guarantee, trading is probably not for you. Most people lose money trading. One of the reasons is that they lack discipline and are unable to be consistent. A system can help you become consistent. Ironically, worrying about the monetary aspect of trading can contribute to and cause a trader to make trading errors. Therefore, it is important to only trade with true risk capital. |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|