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Larry Swing is the President of the popular day and swing trading site www.mrswing.com a place where you can find free daily articles and videos covering education, market analysis and picks from Larry and other well known traders in the industry.
Daily Trade Signals
for All Major Markets incl. Currencies, Forex,
Energies, Financials, Grains, Indices, Metals, Softs Daily Trading Signals
Up
Trend
Down
Trend
No
Trend
Daily P/L Tracking for
Active Signals Documented
Track Record2003(+237.3%) - 2004(+120.3%) - 2005(+42.7%) - 2006(+86.9%) - 2007(+32.67% YTD)
Dec 21, 2006 - Overnight Global News
U.S. Morning Call for Thursday, December 21, 2006
Thailand's baht today fell by sharply -1.6% and is now down by about 4% since the Thai government this past Monday announced currency controls on short-term investments. The Thai government was forced to rescind its order for stocks because the Thai stock market on Tuesday plunged 15% on the news. The Thai stock market today closed -2.2%, giving back some of Wednesday's 11% recovery which followed the news that the government was exempting stocks from its currency control order. The Thai fiasco highlights the pressure that some Asian countries are under to keep their currencies low in order to support exporters.
UK Q3 GDP was revised higher to +2.9% from +2.7%. The stronger GDP growth rate, combined with the current high inflation rate of +2.7%, increases the chances for a BOE rate hike in Q1. The market is currently expecting a 25 bp rate hike by the end of Q1, which would take the base rate to 5.25% from its current level of 5.00%
Overnight U.S. Stock News
March S&Ps this morning are trading +1.50 points. The US stock market yesterday closed slightly lower on some long liquidation pressure and on the 26-cent rally in crude oil prices (Dow -0.06%, S&P 500 -0.14%, Nasdaq Composite -0.08%). In addition, FedEx fell after reporting weaker than expected earnings.
European stocks this morning are trading slightly lower (Stoxx -0.14%, FTSE -0.15%). The Nikkei index today closed +0.22%.
Companies releasing earnings today include Carnival (47 cents), General Mills ($1.03), and ConAgra Foods (33 cents).
Spectra Energy will join the S&P 500 index after Duke Energy spins off the gas-transportation unit.
Jabil Circuit is up +0.7% in European trading this morning after the company reported quarterly revenue at +34% to $3.2 bln, which was above the analyst consensus of $3.1 bln.
Sky Financial (SKYF) rallied 18% in after-hours trading yesterday after Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), which is Ohio's fourth-largest bank, offered to buy Ohio-based Sky Financial for $3.6 billion in stock and cash.
Today's U.S. Market Focus
Claims – Today’s weekly unemployment claims report is expected to show relatively small changes with a +11,000 rise in initial claims (following last week’s -20,000 decline to 304,000) and a -2,000 decline in continuing claims (following last week’s -33,000 decline). The claims series is settling down after showing some volatility due to the Thanksgiving holiday. In general, the unemployment claims series continue to show little change in the US job layoff situation or in the US labor market. Payrolls have shown average monthly growth of a solid +150,000 over the past 6 months, and the current Nov US unemployment rate of 4.5% is just 0.1 point above the 5-1/2 year low of 4.4% posted in Oct.
GDP revision – Today’s Q3 GDP report is not expected to show any revisions from the last report of +2.2% for GDP, +2.9% for personal consumption, and +1.8% for the GDP price index. The Commerce Department last month raised its GDP estimate of +2.2% from +1.6%. The market consensus is that US GDP will remain weak at +2.0% in Q4, and then slowly improve in 2007 from +2.4% in Q1 to +2.9% by Q4. The US economy is expected to be weighed down in early 2007 by the housing market and lower auto production, but is then expected to slowly improve during the year as the housing market bottoms and as overseas growth underpins US and global growth.
Leading indicators – Today’s Nov leading indicators report is expected to show a slight gain of +0.1%, adding to October’s gain of +0.2%. The LEI is expected to indicate that the US economy is stable and is not hitting a sustained soft spot with growth below 2%.
Philadelphia Fed – Today’s Dec Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a -1.1 point decline to 4.0, reversing part of November’s increase of +5.8 to 5.1. The markets remain nervous about the US manufacturing sector given lower auto production and given that the Nov ISM manufacturing index fell below 50 to 49.5 for the first time in 3-1/2 years. Today’s Philadelphia Fed report will provide the first data on the manufacturing sector for December.
March 10-year T-note prices this morning are trading +2 ticks. T-note prices yesterday traded sideways in a narrow range and closed little changed. The T-note market is awaiting any fresh perspectives from today's economic reports (claims, GDP revision, LEI, Philadelphia) or tomorrow's reports which include the core PCE deflator (expected +2.3% vs +2.4% in Oct), Nov durable goods orders (expected +1.3% overall and +1.0% ex-transportation), and US consumer confidence (expected unch from early-Dec at 90.2).
The dollar/yen is down -0.23 yen this morning while the euro/dollar is little changed. The dollar index yesterday closed slightly higher in technical trading. The euro saw some underlying support yesterday from ECB President Trichet's comments that he believes inflation will rise in 2007, which is likely to provoke further ECB tightening.
Feb crude oil prices this morning are trading -32 cents. Feb crude oil prices yesterday closed +26 cents on support from the news in the weekly DOE report that crude oil inventories fell sharply by -6.3 mln bbl (versus expectations of -2 mln bbl). However, that was at least partially offset by increases in product inventories (gasoline +1.1 mln bbl; distillate +1.2 mln bbl). The refinery operating rate rose to a 3-month high of 90.7% as refineries crank production back up in response to improved refining margins.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports
Earnings reports (confirmed releases for companies with market caps above $1 bln listed by mkt cap): CCL-Carnival (IBES consensus earnings estimate: $.467 per share), GIS-General Mills (1.034), CAG-ConAgra Foods (.330), MU-Micron Technology (.200), EGE-AG Edwards (.910), RHT-Red Hat (.117), CMC-Commercial Metal (.740), SLR-Solectron (.048), RAD-Rite Aid (-.015), TIBX-Tibco Software (.121), WOR-Worthington Industries (.393), AM-American Greetings (.350), RECN-Resources Connection (.267)
Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 12/21/2006
United States
0830 ET
Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +11,000 to 315,000, previous –20,000 to 304,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -2,000 to 2.475 mln, previous -33,000 to 2.477 mln.
0830 ET
Q3 GDP final revision expected unch at 2.2%, previous +2.2%. Q3 GDP personal consumption expected unch at +2.9%, previous +2.9%. Q3 GDP price index expected unch at +1.8%, previous +1.8%. Q3 GDP core PCE expected unch at +2.2% q/q, previous +2.2%.
1000 ET
Nov leading indicators expected +0.1%, Oct +0.2%.
1200 ET
Dec Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected -1.1 to 4.0, Nov +5.8 to 5.1.
1300 ET
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economic outlook in North Carolina.
n/a
Treasury announces amounts of 2-yr and 5-yr T-Notes to be auctioned Dec 27 & 28, respectively.
Japan
n/a
Dec Japan monthly economic report.
Canada
0830 ET
Oct Canadian GDP expected +0.1% m/m. Sep –0.3% m/m.
0830 ET
Oct Canadian retail sales expected –0.5% m/m and –0.2% ex autos. Sep –1.2% m/m and –0.9% ex autos.
Signals are generated & published daily before market opens based on closing prices & daily statistics. Account trades one FUTURES contract per $25,000 investment.All signals are entered Market On Close (MOC) or Stop Close Only (SCO).
*All Hypothetical #'s & narratives assume profit is taken out at the end of each year. Reinvesting profits would lead to larger gains.
Narratives by Year & in Total
In total from 2003-2006, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $121,797 profit, to end the 4-year period with an account value of $146,797, for a total gain of 487,2% & an average annual gain of 121,8%. The average monthly gain (in 4 years) was 10,1%.
In 2006, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $21,717 profit, with a YTD account value of $46,717, a YTD gain of 86,9% & an annualized gain of 86,9%, at a run rate to more than double the initial investment. The average monthly gain YTD is 7,2%.
In 2005, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $10,682 profit, to end the year with an account value of $35,682, an annual gain of 42,7%. The average monthly gain was 3,6%.
In 2004, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $30,080 profit, to end the year with an account value of $55,080, an annual gain of 120,3%, again more than doubling the initial investment. The average monthly gain was 10%.
In 2003, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $59,318 profit, to end the year with an account value of $84,318, an annual gain of 237,3%, more than tripling the initial investment. The average monthly gain was 19,8%.
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DISCLAIMER: INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNT PERFORMANCE RESULTS MAY VARY DUE TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS, TO INCLUDE STARTING DATE, ACCOUNT SIZE, COMMISSIONS, PASS-THROUGH FEES, SLIPPAGE & OTHER FACTORS.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL. ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE USED FOR SUCH INVESTMENTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
Daily Trade Signals
for All Major Markets
