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Larry Swing is the President of the popular day and swing trading site www.mrswing.com a place where you can find free daily articles and videos covering education, market analysis and picks from Larry and other well known traders in the industry.
Daily Trade Signals
for All Major Markets incl. Currencies, Forex,
Energies, Financials, Grains, Indices, Metals, Softs Daily Trading Signals
Up
Trend
Down
Trend
No
Trend
Daily P/L Tracking for
Active Signals Documented
Track Record2003(+237.3%) - 2004(+120.3%) - 2005(+42.7%) - 2006(+86.9%) - 2007(+32.67% YTD)
Oct 31, 2006 - Overnight Global News
The Bank of Japan today left its overnight rate unchanged as expected at 0.25%. Separately, the BOJ in its semi-annual report released today predicted that the core CPI (which excludes fresh food) will rise +0.5% in the 2007-08 fiscal year (ending March 31, 2008) from +0.3% in the current 2006-07 fiscal year. The BOJ's forecast for a rise in inflation reiterates the bank's view that deflation is over. The market is generally expecting the BOJ to raise rates by another 25 bp by the end of Q1-2007. The BOJ forecast Japanese GDP at +2.1% in the 2007-08 fiscal year, slightly below +2.4% in the current 2006-07 fiscal year.
India's central bank today raised its overnight lending rate by 25 bp to 7.25%, the fourth rate hike this year. The action was taken in response to strong GDP growth near 8%, rising inflation, and strong credit growth.
European confidence in October rose to a new 5-year high of 110.3 from 109.3 in September, which bodes well for continued consumer spending through the holidays and a continuation of Europe's stronger economy. The market is unanimously expecting the European Central Bank to implement a 25 bp rate hike to 3.50% in December and a further 25 bp hike in Q1. The ECB at its meeting this Thursday (Nov 2) is expected to leave its policy unchanged as it sticks to its pattern of raising rates every other month.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
Dec S&Ps this morning are trading +1.90 points as the market looks ahead to another busy earnings day with positive results. The US stock market yesterday recovered from some early losses to close mixed (Dow -0.03%, S&P 500 +0.04%, Nasdaq Composite +0.56%). The main bullish factors yesterday was the sharp -$2.14 decline in crude oil prices. However, bearish factors hanging over the market yesterday included carry-over concern about last Friday's weak Q3 GDP report of +1.6% and the weekend news that Wal-Mart's October same-store sales were very weak at +0.5%.
European stocks this morning are trading slightly higher (Stoxx +0.10%, FTSE +0.09%). The Nikkei index today closed +0.29%.
Procter & Gamble (PG) is trading slightly lower by -0.2% in European trading ahead of its earnings report before today's US open (analyst consensus 78 cents).
Merck (MRK) fell slightly by -0.1% after news that Merck agreed to buy Sirna Therapeutics (RNAI) for $1.1 billion.
Verizon Communications (VZ) is down -1.0% in European trading this morning after UBS downgraded its rating on the stock to "neural" from "buy."
Celgene (CGNE) is up +4.4% in European trading this morning after S&P announced late yesterday that the stock will replace AmSouth Bancorp in the S&P 500 index effective on Nov 3.
UBS is trading sharply lower by 2% in European trading this morning after reporting a 21% decline in Q3 earnings due to lower trading revenues.
Today's U.S. Market Focus
ECI – Today’s Q3 Employment Cost Index is expected to show a gain of +0.8%, which would be slightly below the +0.9% gain seen in Q2. The expected report today of +0.8% would be right on the 8-quarter moving average, thus showing that the ECI is in line with the recent trend. The ECI is the broadest measure of employee costs. The market will therefore be watching today’s ECI report carefully to see if there is any upward movement in response to a relatively tight labor market and an unemployment rate at a 5-year low of 4.6%. The Fed would not be pleased with an upward trend in employee costs, since that could cause an upward push on the overall US inflation rate.
Consumer confidence – Today’s Oct US consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a solid increase of +3.5 to 108.0, adding to the +4.3 point increase seen in September to 104.5. The expected report today of 108.0 would leave the index just 1.8 points shy of the 4-year high of 109.8 posted this past April. US consumer confidence has been supported in the past 2 months by the plunge in gasoline prices, a generally strong economy and labor market, and new highs in the US stock market. On the other hand, items of concern to consumers include historically high gasoline prices, a slumping housing market, pre-election cacophony, and geopolitical concerns tied to Iraq, Iran and North Korea. The markets are watching consumer confidence especially carefully to try to get a sense of how strong the holiday shopping season will be.
Chicago Purchasing Managers – Today’s Oct Chicago Purchasing Managers index is expected to show a -4.1 point decline to 58.0. The expected decline would reverse most of the +5.0 point surge seen in September to a 1-1/2 year high of 62.1 and would leave the index slightly below the 12-month trend average of 59.3. The Chicago area manufacturing sector is in better shape than the national manufacturing sector, at least according to the national ISM manufacturing index which is significantly lower at a 1-1/4 year low of 52.9. Tomorrow’s ISM manufacturing index is only expected to show a slight increase of +0.1 point to 53.0, which would keep the US manufacturing sector in a weak light. The biggest negative factor for the US manufacturing sector over the next two quarters will be plans by US automakers to cut production due to high inventories.
Dec T-note prices this morning are trading -0.5 tick. Dec T-notes yesterday paused after the sharp 3-session rally and closed unchanged. Bearish factors yesterday included (1) some long liquidation pressure, and (2) the continued sharp sell-off in crude oil prices which will provide some stimulus to the economy. Bullish factors yesterday included (1) the fact that the Sep core PCE deflator eased slightly to +2.4% from +2.5% as expected, and (2) carry-over support from last week's FOMC minutes and weaker than expected Q3 GDP report of +1.6%.
The dollar this morning is trading moderately higher on some short-covering after last week's sharp losses (dollar/yen +0.40, euro/dollar -0.31 cents). The dollar index yesterday stabilized and traded basically sideways following last week's sharp sell-off on the FOMC minutes and weak US GDP report.
Dec crude oil prices this morning are trading -16 cents. Dec crude oil prices yesterday closed sharply lower by -$2.39 per barrel, and came only 10 cents from matching last Monday's contract low of $58.15. However, Dec crude oil remained well above the 10-month low of $56.55 posted on Oct 20 on the nearest-futures chart (on the Nov contract). Fresh bearish factors yesterday included (1) expectations for tomorrow's weekly DOE report to show a +2.7 mln bbl increase in crude oil inventories, and (2) forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather in the US in early November, which will undercut heating oil demand.
Signals are generated & published daily before market opens based on closing prices & daily statistics. Account trades one FUTURES contract per $25,000 investment.All signals are entered Market On Close (MOC) or Stop Close Only (SCO).
*All Hypothetical #'s & narratives assume profit is taken out at the end of each year. Reinvesting profits would lead to larger gains.
Narratives by Year & in Total
In total from 2003-2006, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $121,797 profit, to end the 4-year period with an account value of $146,797, for a total gain of 487,2% & an average annual gain of 121,8%. The average monthly gain (in 4 years) was 10,1%.
In 2006, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $21,717 profit, with a YTD account value of $46,717, a YTD gain of 86,9% & an annualized gain of 86,9%, at a run rate to more than double the initial investment. The average monthly gain YTD is 7,2%.
In 2005, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $10,682 profit, to end the year with an account value of $35,682, an annual gain of 42,7%. The average monthly gain was 3,6%.
In 2004, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $30,080 profit, to end the year with an account value of $55,080, an annual gain of 120,3%, again more than doubling the initial investment. The average monthly gain was 10%.
In 2003, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $59,318 profit, to end the year with an account value of $84,318, an annual gain of 237,3%, more than tripling the initial investment. The average monthly gain was 19,8%.
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DISCLAIMER: INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNT PERFORMANCE RESULTS MAY VARY DUE TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS, TO INCLUDE STARTING DATE, ACCOUNT SIZE, COMMISSIONS, PASS-THROUGH FEES, SLIPPAGE & OTHER FACTORS.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL. ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE USED FOR SUCH INVESTMENTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
Daily Trade Signals
for All Major Markets
