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MORNING GOLD MARKET REPORT for 5/31/06

Swing Trading - MORNING GOLD MARKET REPORT for 5/31/06

larry swing

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FutureSwings ® by Larry Swing

Larry Swing is the President of the popular day and swing trading site www.mrswing.com a place where you can find free daily articles and videos covering education, market analysis and picks from Larry and other well known traders in the industry.

Daily Trade Signals for All Major Markets
      
incl. Currencies, Forex, Energies, Financials, Grains, Indices, Metals, Softs
Daily Trading Signals

Up Trend
Down Trend
No Trend

Daily P/L Tracking for Active Signals
Documented Track Record
2003(+237.3%) - 2004(+120.3%) - 2005(+42.7%) - 2006(+86.9%) - 2007(+32.67% YTD)


May 31, 2006 - Statistics: London Gold Fix $654.00 +1.75 LME COPPER STKS 112,175 ml tns +6,150 tons

Morning Gold Market Report for 5/31/2006

Compiled 05/31/06 6:00 AM (CT)

Statistics: London Gold Fix $654.00 +1.75 LME COPPER STKS 112,175 ml tns +6,150 tons

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: (6:00 AM CST) While the Dollar gains this morning are very limited, that action has apparently unddermined gold in the early going. After some moderate overnight weakness in international equity markets, prices have manage a bit of a recovery and that could temper some of the minor pressure being seen in the gold market in the early trade. With the rest of the metals starting out weak and oil prices banking some profits there is a generally bearish tilt coming from outside markets. In a positive note, the gold market did see a favorable German employment report overnight and European equity markets have managed to climb back into positive territory just ahead of the start of the US session.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: (6:00 AM CST) Comments from the Gold Fields CEO in the Sunday New Zealand times fostered significant price volatility. With the statements coming from the head of one of the world's largest gold mining concerns one would expect the comments to carry significant weight in the marketplace. While, the Gold Fields executive did predict a pullback to $500 in gold, he also suggested that even higher gold prices were ahead, and therefore the overall impact from the story is apparently being seen as supportive. Apparently, the Gold Fields CEO also made the case that gold was extremely cheap relative to crude oil and that the current correction could help stimulate jewelry demand. In another partially undermining story, South African sources have suggested that sales to India this year have been pared by 1/5th because of high prices! Therefore high prices are apparently having some impact on physical and investment demand and with the recent threat of slowing US economic activity (arising out of US equity market weakness) it seems that at least a portion of the May slide in gold prices is justified by classic supply and demand fundamentals. In the near term, the slight bounce in the Dollar overnight seems to have given the bear camp a minor early edge and with the rest of the metals weaker, one always has to fear a bout of broad based commodity selling. On the other hand, seeing an improvement in German employment figures overnight and a recovery in global equity markets have given the bear camp some pause.

Technical Analysis:
Note: Compiled during previous session 05/30/2006 at 3:21 PM CT CBOT GOLD (JUN) 05/31/2006: Daily stochastics are trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average.

Additional Reference:

Technical Statistics - As of 05/30/2006 3:21 PM CT
Month 9 Day
RSI
14 Day
RSI
14 Day
Slow
Stoch D
14 Day
Slow
Stoch K
20 Day
MA
40 Day
MA
60 Day
MA
ZG JUN 42.99 47.60 25.59 18.73 677.30 647.66 619.43

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...thanks for the trust you've shown in MrSwing .

by
Larry Swing
May the swing be with you...
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Signals are generated & published daily before market opens based on closing prices & daily statistics. Account trades one FUTURES contract per $25,000 investment.All signals are entered Market On Close (MOC) or Stop Close Only (SCO).

*All Hypothetical #'s & narratives assume profit is taken out at the end of each year. Reinvesting profits would lead to larger gains.

Narratives by Year & in Total

In total from 2003-2006, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $121,797 profit, to end the 4-year period with an account value of $146,797, for a total gain of 487,2% & an average annual gain of 121,8%. The average monthly gain (in 4 years) was 10,1%.

In 2006, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $21,717 profit, with a YTD account value of $46,717, a YTD gain of 86,9% & an annualized gain of 86,9%, at a run rate to more than double the initial investment. The average monthly gain YTD is 7,2%.

In 2005, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $10,682 profit, to end the year with an account value of $35,682, an annual gain of 42,7%. The average monthly gain was 3,6%.

In 2004, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $30,080 profit, to end the year with an account value of $55,080, an annual gain of 120,3%, again more than doubling the initial investment. The average monthly gain was 10%.

In 2003, an initial investment of $25,000 earned $59,318 profit, to end the year with an account value of $84,318, an annual gain of 237,3%, more than tripling the initial investment. The average monthly gain was 19,8%.

 

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DISCLAIMER: INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNT PERFORMANCE RESULTS MAY VARY DUE TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS, TO INCLUDE STARTING DATE, ACCOUNT SIZE, COMMISSIONS, PASS-THROUGH FEES, SLIPPAGE & OTHER FACTORS.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL. ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE USED FOR SUCH INVESTMENTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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