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Combining Trend and Timing Indicators in Scan

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Larry Swing President of mrswing.com

Larry Swing is the President of the popular day and swing trading site www.mrswing.com a place where you can find free daily articles and videos covering education, market analysis and picks from Larry and other well known traders in the industry.

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Jan 2, 2008 - Combining the timing and trend indicators and using price action to confirm them will increase the probability of a trade going the right way...

From the previous article, the strategy of using a timing indicator with a trending indicator to define and understand market structure was explained. Using SwingTracker, the trader can scan and automate the search process to filter out the stocks that meet the right criteria to make the trade. This is the formula for finding a long entry.

VOLUME  > 100000  AND MACD15 >MACD15_5 AND STO12_K  < 20 AND IQC_1=1


We’ll dissect the formula into one expression at a time:
1. VOLUME > 100000 means we’ll look only at stocks that trade with volume greater than 100000. (This can be modified to trader’s requirements).
2. MACD15 > MACD15_5 means today’s 15-day MACD is above the MACD five ago. This is set to determine the short term trend direction.
3. STO12_K  <  20 is Stochastics line is below the 20% line. This is to indicate the reading is at oversold; when the run-up is followed by a consolidation, an oversold reading occurs. Basically it’s to find a pullback to make the entry.
4. CLOSE > CLOSE1 means the current day’s close is higher than the previous day’s close. This is purely price action-based of the past few bars to find the right momentum. Indicators many times don’t reflect the true nature of the price action and this substitutes it. The CLOSE higher than the previous day identifies who are stronger: the buyers or the sellers. Closing higher identified the buyers as stronger; this helps confirming the indicators. The important concept to understand is that the price must confirm the indicators and vice versa.
5. HIGH > HIGH1 means the current day’s high is higher than the high of the previous day. This is to find the momentum when it’s about to move in the right direction: up. A higher high shows a positive mood of the buyers in pushing it higher. Positive price action must be present to confirm the indicators.



Figure 1 MACD turning up, Stochastics at oversold area, price consolidating.


In the results from a scan shows CLWR in a consolidation from price action, but MACD is moving high, something that cannot be detected by simply looking at the price chart alone. The trend has steadily gone up while the Stochastics reading is below 20, this is right time to watch it carefully. Once the Stochastics line begins moving up (usually by a price moving higher and closing higher than previous day), then an entry will be taken.




Figure 2 shows a MACD about to turn up and Stochastics reversing toward overbought.

This stock seems a bit thin but it met the scan’s criteria. If taking a look at the chart, one can see the divergence taking place between price action and the MACD seen from late August to beginning of November. This is the first clue that the stock is changing roles soon. There maybe some accumulation taking place in a very discrete way. Back to the last bar to the right, the MACD is now turning up again and Stochastics is moving up along with the big price spike and closing at the high, this is a positive price action. The momentum is starting to pick up steam and the moment is right for a long entry. Be sure to set a stop loss order.  



Figure 3 shows MACD moving higher with Stochastics turning upwards from oversold.

PGIC is trending down, this is clearly a downtrend. It’s recommended to follow the trend. But in this case, if the long is taken, it’s a counter-trend trade: a very risky trade and requires bigger nerves of steel and a different perspective to take it. However, it’s possible the stocks sellers are near exhaustion, with the prices decelerating.  Stochastics is turning up from oversold and MACD has been moving up while prices continues down: a divergence. So the trade might have a good chance, but make sure the stop loss order is place to avoid being wrong BIG.

For short scan, here’s the formula:

VOLUME1  > 100000  AND MACD15_1 < MACD15_5 AND STO12_K  > 80 AND IQC_1=1


Combining the timing and trend indicators and using price action to confirm them will increase the probability of a trade going the right way. Finding the trend and then finding the right moment to enter is the essence of a winning strategy. This scan will help identify those stocks that are ready to move.

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by Larry Swing
CEO & Head Swing Trader

+1 (281) 968-2718
Yahoo & Skype ID: larry_swing

larry@mrswing.com
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