tuesday update -- MrSwing

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tuesday update
Mar 10, 2009

Tony

ELLIOTT WAVE LIVES ON
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SHORT TERM: Bernanke speaks at CFR and market rallies, DOW +379

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher and closed +5.10%. US index futures were higher overnight and surged after FED chairman Bernanke's speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090310a.htm. Reminds me of the friday when the Bilderberg meeting started last June, and Crude rose $10.00 (8%) in one day. At the open stocks gapped up to SPX 686 and kept rising. At 10:00 January Wholesale inventories were reported at -0.7% v -1.5%. The market kept rising. At 12:00 the SPX hit 716 and then pulled back to 707 by 1:30. Then the SPX again starting rising hitting 720 at the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +6.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +6.80%. Bonds lost nearly one point, Crude slipped $1.25, Gold dropped $20.00 and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX moves up to 717 and then 696, with resistance at 734 and then 768. Short term momentum was extremely overbought at the close. Tomorrow, the Budget deficit will be reported at 2:00.

The market gapped up at the open today and rallied past two overhead pivots: 696 and then 717. Today's short term action was the best we've seen since the last uptrend. In fact, there were some "buy on the close" orders as the indices crept up after 4:00. The short term count from the January high at SPX 944 to friday's low at 667 looks to have completed five waves down. So far the rally appears to be impulsing. To maintain this structure the SPX needs to stay above the 695 high posted on monday. Therefore, as long as the market holds support at the 696 pivot we have to assume that a new uptrend may be underway. The next objective would be the pivot at 734. This is the pivot that held support in November 2008, and then failed to hold support in recent weeks while the market made new lows. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend, but market may have bottomed

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987