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thursday update

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SHORT TERM: market rallies in half session, DOW +73

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower, with only the SSEC rising. Europe opened lower, but closed +0.80%. US index futures traded higher overnight and into the open, after the ECB raised rates 25bps, and non-farm payrolls came in at the same rate of decline as last month, -62,000. Unemployment remained at 5.5%. At the open the market gapped up to 1269, but was quickly sold off to a new downtrend low at SPX 1252 by 10:00. At this time ISM services reported a drop from 51.7% to 48.2%, which would indicate a contraction in this sector. Off the low stocks rallied to 1271 by 11:30, and then eased back into the close to 1262. At the close, the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ ended mixed. Bonds gained a couple of ticks, Crude added 75 cents, Gold was off $11.50, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1287 and then 1316. Short term momentum ended near oversold levels, while the near term indicators turned lower. While we had expected this first downtrend off the May SPX 1440 high to last about a month. It has continued to extend into a second month, by taking out the March bear market lows today. This confirms the DOW, which had done the same thing last week. Next support SPX 1240. Enjoy the weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues
LONG TERM: bear market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

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