monday update -- MrSwing

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monday update
Aug 18, 2008

Tony

ELLIOTT WAVE LIVES ON
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SHORT TERM: financials decline market follows, DOW -181

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed, Europe opened lower and closed -0.15%. The market opened slightly higher, hitting SPX 1300 in the first few minutes. That was the high for the day. A pullback to 1290 followed by 10:30, and then the market rallied a few points to 1296. After that the financials headed lower taking the general market and the techs with them. By 12:30 the SPX broke through the 1287 support pivot and continued lower to last weeks low at 1275. After finding support around 3:00 at that level the market bounced around a bit into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were down 1.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.35%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude lost 95 cents, Gold rallied $17.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX drops down to 1261 and then 1240, with resistance now at 1287 and 1316. Short term momentum was quite oversold at todays lows and finished there. The near term indicators turned down as well, while still displaying the negative divergences from last weeks high at SPX 1313. Today the home builders index was reported to be still at record lows. Tomorrow the July PPI and housing starts will be reported at 8:30.

Thus far the August 11th high of SPX 1313 remains the high for the uptrend. The first pullback from that high occurred last wednesday on the 13th to SPX 1275. On friday the 15th the SPX managed to rally back to 1302 during options expiration. Today the same 1275 was tested in the last hour heading into the close. A break below this level should force additional technical selling. Our near term indicators are displaying their first major weakness since this uptrend began on July 15th at SPX 1200. We continue to feel that a break below the OEW pivot at 1261 will signal the start of the next downtrend. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1313

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987