monday update -- MrSwing

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monday update
Aug 04, 2008

Tony

ELLIOTT WAVE LIVES ON
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SHORT TERM: market closes lower in choppy trading, DOW -42

Overnight the Asian markets were all lower, and Europe opened lower and closed -0.70%. At 8:30 the Commerce Dept. reported inflation adjusted consumer spending and disposable incomes declined. PCE inflation for the month of June rose 0.8%, the highest monthly rise in 27 years. The PCE is now rising at an annual rate of 4.1%. At the open stocks were unchanged, but quickly pulled back. At 10:00 factory orders were reported +1.7%, but the pullback continued. At 10:30 the market hit 1248, stabilized there for an hour, and then started to rally as Crude sold off. By 12:30 the SPX hit 1257, pulled back to 1252 by 1:00, and then rallied to 1260 by 3:00. Failing to break through the 1261 pivot, the SPX then sold off into the close, making a slightly lower low (1247). For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.15%. Bonds were flat, Crude lost $4.00, Gold dropped $12.00 and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX drops down to 1240 and then 1219, with resistance at 1261 and then 1287. Short term momentum was oversold this morning then edged higher. The near term indicators are now around neutral. Tomorrow at 10:00 ISM services, then at 2:00 the regular FOMC meeting announcement. The market slipped below friday's low today to 1247. Even after a $4.00 drop in Crude this market could not sustain any sort of rally. Still feel the market will move higher, but keep an eye on that SPX 1234 level. A break below that could put this rally in jeopardy.

Joe A. of our OEW group just launched his own free blog: http://www.tradingpoints.net/. Joe provides a quantitative fibonacci approach to day trading ES, and other markets as well. He's been updating our group on a regular basis now for a few months. Check it out!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend bottomed at SPX 1200

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987