Swing Trading Strategies & Stock Picks Since 2003

Here is something interesting from last Thursday: There seems to be a bullish edge when the following is true: Note: Up big below means that the closing price represents a % gain of more than 1 standard deviation above the average 1 day % change measured over the last 30 trading days. When the S&P 500 futures are up big 2 days ago and up big today (today being Thursday,) and we are in the lower third of the 13 week range 4 days ago, 3 days ago, 2 days ago and 1 day ago. The S&P 500 Futures rally in 83% of the cases (20 of 24) by an average of 5.2% relative to the close on Thursday, (which was 1076.6). The average of the 4 declines is -1.6%. The overall return of the 24 cases is 4.0%, which based on the close from Thursday, would give it a target price of 1119.66. The peak of the bullish edge is in 20 trading days (from Thursday,) which would be Thursday, March 11, 2010.

Signal: BUY
Closing Price: 19.28
Entry Price: 19.38
Stop Loss Price: 18.36
Profit Target 1 Price: 20.90
Profit Target 2 Price: 21.42



Signal: BUY
Closing Price: 48.67
Entry Price: 48.83
Stop Loss Price: 46.07
Profit Target 1 Price: 52.97
Profit Target 2 Price: 54.35



Signal: BUY
Closing Price: 37.82
Entry Price: 37.84
Stop Loss Price: 37.02
Profit Target 1 Price: 39.07
Profit Target 2 Price: 39.48



Signal: BUY
Closing Price: 14.77
Entry Price: 14.93
Stop Loss Price: 14.07
Profit Target 1 Price: 16.22
Profit Target 2 Price: 16.65



Signal: SELL
Closing Price: 31.26
Entry Price: 31.47
Stop Loss Price: 33.77
Profit Target 1 Price: 28.02
Profit Target 2 Price: 26.87