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You Are Here: Home > Articles > Commentary > Will Current Repeating SPX Cycle Predict Future?

Will Current Repeating SPX Cycle Predict Future?
Nov 20, 2009

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Corey Rosenbloom

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I wanted to point out a clean idiosyncrasy in the current S&P 500 chart of the last three months - almost with awe.

This cycle has held up so far, and it’s allowed me to call successful predictions recently upon recognizing it earlier.

If the cycle repeats, then you have a clear roadmap to the near future.  Let’s see it and watch as to whether or not the cycle repeats into the end of November.

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The observation is as follows:  Price has made the low of the month in the first few trading days of September, October, and (so far) November.

Price has rallied without a pause - I’ve been calling it “Short Squeezes” or “Bear Traps” or “Popped Stops” - until the middle of the month - around the 20th/21st.

Price has formed negative momentum divergences into the new highs, along with dojis or reversal candles on the daily chart at the swing highs.

Price has fallen sharply, but only for about a week, into the final days of the month.

If this pattern repeats, then we could expect a minimum pullback to the 1,045 or so level into the end of November - perhaps that move down has already started.

Or - to play devil’s advocate - since more people are catching on to this cycle, the cycle will do the opposite of what’s expected, meaning price will thrust to a new high.

But without getting too deep, let’s see if  history does indeed repeat, and if it does, then let’s target sligtly lower levels on the S&P 500.

For prior posts, see the following related to this cycle and prior ‘predictions’:

Nov 17:  “Triple Measured Moves Show Market Character in SPY”

Nov 16:  “A Look at Prior Peaks in the S&P 500”

Nov 9:  “New S&P 500 Highs Forecast by Fifth Sprung Bear Trap”

Nov 5:  “Andrews Pitchfork Update for S&P 500”

As always, I keep subscribers of the “Idealized Trades” service updated of the developments I’m seeing in additional detail.

For “bigger picture” analysis and opportunities across five major markets and three timeframes, consider joining the Weekly Intermarket Report service.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com


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