There has been a lot of volatility in the foreign exchange market this morning, driving currencies to historic levels:
GBP/USD - 26 Year Low
USD/JPY - 13 Year Low
NZD/USD - 6 Year Low
EUR/JPY - 6 Year Low
CAD/JPY - 13 Year Low
GBP/JPY - Record Low
NZD/JPY - 8 Year Low
The most significant moves have been in the British pound, which fell
to a 26 year low against the US dollar and in USD/JPY, which fell to
the lowest level in 13 years. Comments from former Fed Chairman Volcker
triggered a wave of risk aversion that led to a technical break in the
currency market. He said “we are in serious recession, with no end
clearly in sight.” Although there is no question that the US economy is
in trouble, by saying that there is no end in sight means that there is
no hope which coming from the chairman of Obama’s newly formed Economic
Recovery Advisory Board is significant. By saying that he does not an
end to the recession is certainly not good advice. Treasury Secretary
Nominee Geithner expects an Obama economic stimulus plan to be released
in the next few weeks but unfortunately Volcker’s comments overshadowed
the prospect of a stimulus plan. Yesterday’s sharp sell-off made
investors nervous but Volcker’s comments pushed them over the edge.
We are continuing to see flight to safety into the US dollar and
Japanese Yen. Investors are looking to hide in the lowest yieldind
currencies.
We also had comments from ECB President Trichet and SNB President Hildebrand. Trichet defended the ECB’s monetary policy and said they haven’t decided if 2 percent is the lowest level for rates.
Intervention by Swiss National Bank?
The Swiss franc collapsed after SNB Hildebrand said that the central banks is considering selling francs to halt the currency’s gains. With interest rates already at 0.5 percent, they have no room to ease monetary policy. Therefore they may have to resort to fixed rate currency intervention.