Swing Trading Strategies & Stock Picks Since 2003

Right now, the indexes don't excite me that much. Even if you're quite bearish, it's hard to squeeze much more out of the likes of the S&P. Don't get me wrong - I'm short the /ES modestly - but to me, that's not really where the action is.

I have found many, many opportunities on the short side, and quite a few of these stocks have ample room to fall (unlike, say, the Dow 30, which has been beaten to a pulp). It will help if indexes fall hard, of course, but I'm not necessarily counting on their aid.

I will say, however, that Exxon is a valuable bellwether - perhaps even moreso than a big index. Take a look at this long-term graph, spanning pretty much my lifetime.

Pretty amazing stock, isn't it? It did breach that very long-term trendline briefly last year, but it has recovered now; let's take a closer look.

If XOM can break below $73, that will help the bearish case overall. This is a gigantic stock, and it has a huge influence on the major indexes. It's worth your attention.

I'm "blogged out" for the day, so I'm heading to bed. I'll see you in the morning, and I hope we can get some more fireworks on Thursday and Friday before my big ski week coming up.