Was Today Capitulation In The Financials? -- MrSwing

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Was Today Capitulation In The Financials?
Jul 15, 2008

Jordan Kahn, CFA

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At the open, it looked like the Treasury announcement regarding Fannie and Freddie might be enough to spark a rally. But soon the concern regarding the financials resurfaced, and the regional bank stocks began falling precipitously.

After IndyMac (IMB) was taken over by the FDIC, investors became concerned that there could be a large number of other banks to fail as well. I am sure the number of bank failures will rise during this period, but I'm not sure it will be the larger, well known names that seem to be trading like death.

Looking at the chart above, I find the action in the bank index (BKX)
If we turned this chart upside down, we would probably be highlighting it today as a blowoff top, and recommending to take profits in the stocks. So one could make the same argument in reverse. Could today's action have been the capitulation that might finally mark at least a near-term bottom in the financials?
The market remains oversold, as it has been for what seems like weeks now. My colleague on TheStreet.com noted that the 30-day advance/decline line is as oversold as it has been since September 1998. But in bear markets, sometimes oversold markets merely get more oversold.
That said, I am still looking for an oversold rally at some point, and will look to use any near-term strength in the market to reassess my overall stance. interesting. The BKX fell an additional -8.5% today alone, a huge move, but even more so in the context of the prolonged downturn in the financials.