Swing Trading Strategies & Stock Picks Since 2003

One of tonight’s earning events we’ll be watching after-hours this evening will be the report out of online advertiser ValueClick (VCLK). The ad company is due to report Q2 results in the after-hours session tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson First Call are expecting a profit of $0.16 per share on revenue of $170 million.

VCLK has mostly narrowed its extended-hours share moves in the following regular session after an earnings event. In other words, it tends to reverse gains or losses from the after-hours to the following day’s regular session close.  It has done so in the last 12 of 16 quarters. Near term, the performance favors narrowing as well, with the stock cutting back its evening move in the next day's session in three of the last four quarters, the exception being the most recent period.
On May 6, 2008, VCLK fell 2.3% after beating with Q1 results but offering mixed guidance. The stock dropped 6.8% the next day.
On Feb. 13, 2008, VCLK advanced 5.6% in evening trade after beating Q4 revenue expectations but also offering mixed guidance. It lost a good portion of its gain the next day, ending with a 2.6% advance.
On Nov. 1, 2007, VCLK was up 1.6% in night trade after beating on earnings, meeting revenue expectations, and setting mixed guidance. The stock slipped into the red the next day, losing 0.5% by the closing bell on Nov. 2.
On July 30, 2007, VCLK tumbled 21.6% in the pre-market session after missing Q2 estimates and forecasting FY sales to be below Street views. Shares recovered slightly in the regular session, ending down 19.2%.

We’ll be following this one for you tonight in our Live Briefs service. If it goes up tonight, we’ll be looking to short it after-hours or at the open tomorrow.  If it goes down, we’ll make a call in our Forecast Report on how to best play it based on its reaction tonight.