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The Slippery Slope
Nov 21, 2008

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Tim Knight

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My suggestion on buying DIG yesterday was ill-conceived, obviously. I lost on that one, and in a market like this, bullish notions should be backed by staggering amounts of technical evidence.

Looking at OIH (on which I am still the unhappy owner of some call options I bought yesterday), my view is actually pretty dark on energy. I do think OIH will move higher, but not much. I think it'll fight its way back to about 78.

The bigger picture on OIH shows why; there is tremendous downward momentum and overhead supply.

It is true that the price of crude oil is now so low that it is no longer economically feasible for many countries to even pull it out of the ground. Thus, supply will fall and prices will stabilize. But these shifts move slowly, and I was a fool to think buying OIH (or DIG) was a good idea at this stage. I'm sorry.


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