Swing Trading Strategies & Stock Picks Since 2003

Well, this is a bit nerve-wracking. Earlier today, I took profits in a handful of positions, but pretty much all the shorts I have had are still in place. I've even beefed up a few of the more attractive ones today.

The concern, of course, is the pattern we've seen over the past few weeks:

So why not close out all my shorts? A few reasons:

• + It is impractical; I have deliberately spread my bets very wide and very thin;
• + The charts I have shorted stand on their own merits;
• + The pattern you see above isn't going to last forever; it will, at some point, break (in other words, we aren't going to spend the next ten years moving up and down in a 20 point range on the SPX every week). Whether it breaks to the upside or downside remains to be seen.

I don't doubt we'll probably see some strength here soon, but I am waiting for this pattern to roll over altogether. I'm currently 2/3rds in shorts, 1/3rd in cash, and it will be a while before I dare touch any margin for buying power. Risk management is still paramount.