Swing Trading Strategies & Stock Picks Since 2003



Watch Trading Videos for FREE now!
draw trend
You Are Here: Home > Articles > Stock Picks > Powershares Agriculture (DBF): Power play on...

Powershares Agriculture (DBF): Power play on grains
Dec 03, 2008

Picture

Steven Halpern

add TheStockAdvisor
More articles
Font Size:
Text size
Text size
Text size

"It’s time for commodities to start rallying again – especially those agriculture sectors that are increasingly coming under pressure amid declining supplies," says commodity expert Eric Roseman.

In his industry-leading The Commodity Trend Alert, he looks to an ETF - the Power Shares DB Agriculture (NYSE: DBA) - noting, "It’s now time to buy a diversified basket of grains." Here's his review.


"Despite the best crop yields in years for 2008, farmers are now coming under pressure as the credit crisis delays planting, financing of important fertilizer and machinery.

"This implies supplies will tighten markedly next year as more farmers go out of business following a crash in prices since July.

"It’s possible that we’re at the cusp of yet another food crisis as supplies start to decline. Since hitting nominal highs earlier in February, wheat prices have crashed 60%, soybeans have plunged 43% and corn prices have tanked 52% since late June.

"The credit crisis finally caught up with commodities last summer until it simply overwhelmed the market. Then the selling began.

"Now, it’s time to start buying again. I recently surveyed trends across the largest grain-producing nations. The results are alarming. Many emerging market and even major market countries that grow wheat and other crops are facing serious difficulties securing financing.

"According to the USDA, global inventories of corn, wheat and soybeans before the harvest in the Northern Hemisphere next year will be the second lowest since 1974.

"To invest in a diversified basket of grains, we are recommending the Power Shares DB Agriculture ETF, which holds about 20% each in corn, soybeans, wheat and sugar futures.

"This is the best way to play this volatile sector because it’s highly liquid and sponsored by Deutsch Bank. DBA is now 40% off its all-time high earlier last summer.

"While I believe we’re heading into a serious economic recession, I don’t foresee an outright depression. World central banks and governments will throw everything they’ve got at arresting falling prices, including the Chinese who just announced a $586 billion dollar spending bill on Monday.

"Once broad-based global de-leveraging has run its course and the hedge funds are finally done selling assets, price action in the grains and soft commodities should again be driven by fundamentals, including strong demand from the emerging markets, tight supplies and a weaker American dollar.

"I’ve always remained bullish on this sector and continue to believe in the long-term decline of food supplies amid booming population growth and growing demand. The credit crisis delayed our investment theme but didn’t destroy its legitimacy.

"I’ll also add the inflationary consequences of this ongoing bail-out – probably more than $2 trillion dollars before it’s all over will also support our commodities investments. That moment is approaching."


Rate this article

 
 
(click to rate) 


DBA
C:28.9100

Rate DBA

 

(click to rate)


Back to top


You Are Here:Home > Articles > Stock Picks > Powershares Agriculture (DBF): Power play on...

BUY? SELL? HOLD?
Find out now.