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OK, so the Dow closed below 8,000 yesterday. This morning we are seeing continued downside pressure in the market, and the Dow is making new multi year lows.
One thing to keep in mind is the fact that tomorrow is November options expiration. During options expiration week, it is typically to see false action in the market.
Before I get all "bearish," and start selling call spreads and shorting stocks, I want to see a couple things...
1. I want options expiration to be behind us
2. I want to see 3 consecutive closes below 8,000 in the Dow
This will be ample proof that the 8,000 support level has seen a clear break. At this point, I will begin taking bearish positions. Right now I'm approximately 35% long, 15% short, and 50% cash.
The downside to my requirements is that I may miss a large downside move in the market. I'm willing to accept that risk.
Regards,
Nick Fenton
Sr. Trade Analyst, DTT