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I've been trading Deere successfully in recent weeks, and I was pleased as a put-owner to see the graph this morning.

For me, this is a reminder of an important lesson I've learned as a bear lately: don't underestimate just how far a stock can go down.

The thing that kills us in bull markets is underestimating how high a stock or index can go up. But now that the shoe is on the other foot (or paw, that is), we all need to understand this is a two-edged short. Don't leap at the first sign of a profit, even if it's a good one. Wait for a strong technical argument to make an exit, and recognize that, when you're dealing with stocks that have climbed hundreds of person, there is plenty of open air through which they can fall.

I'm holding on to these puts. That trendline is a long way from here.