Early indications point to a mixed open, as investors return from the weekend to find very little news to work with Monday morning. About 90 minutes before the opening bell on Wall Street, stock index futures hint at a modest loss for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but a slight gain for the NASDAQ.
Dow component Alcoa (AA) is due to release results after the closing bell today. Analysts expect the aluminum company to post a quarterly loss of 10 cents per share, which is down from 36 cents a year ago.
Alcoa warned last week that it would cut 13 percent of its workforce and 18 percent of output to cope with deteriorating economic conditions. Wal-mart (WMT) and Intel (INTC) also issued warnings.
Given the bleak outlook for fourth quarter and 2008 earnings results, some pre-earnings-reporting jitters could keep trading somewhat cautious over the next few days. Alcoa unofficially kicks off the reporting-season today, but the floodgate on earnings doesn't open until next week.
At the same time, the economic calendar holds no reports of signficance until data on retail sales Wednesday morning.
With little news to guide the early action, bonds aren't doing much. The benchmark ten-year Treasury bond is down 3/32nd and yields 2.4 percent.
The dollar fell another .50 to 89.89 on the Japanese yen. The euro slipped back to 1.3421 on the buck.
Crude oil prices are still under pressure. After falling 12 percent last week, crude is down another $1.93 to $38.90 a barrel.
Gold is off $10 to $845 an ounce.
Among the stocks to watch, Citigroup (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) might see early action on reports the two might merge brokerage operations. Charles Schwab (SCHW) is due to report earnings. Harley Davidson (HOG) might fall after Goldman Sachs cut the stock from Neutral to Sell.
In the options market, the tone of trading remained cautious, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 143 points on revived worries about the economy Friday. The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) closed up .26 to 42.82. Approximately 5.3 million calls and 5.9 million puts traded across the US options exchanges.
Palm (PALM) saw heavy trading as call buyers surfaced on optimism for the company's new phone. Medical equipment maker Stryker (SYK) gained $2.38 to $40.96 after the company reaffirmed its fourth quarter earnings guidance. SYK options volume jumped to four times the average daily levels, with 12,000 calls and 2,200 puts traded. Bullish trading was also seen in Cemex (CX), Dish Networks (DISH), and Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI).
Put volume picked up in Rambus (RMBS) on news the company lost a patent case to Micron Technology (MU). Toll Brothers (TOL) shares fell 98 cents to $20.72 amid a rough day for the homebuilders. The sector sank after after KB Homes (KBH) reported a steep quarterly loss and after an unfavorable report about Lennar (LEN) surfaced on the Fraud Discovery Institute web site. Some players in the options market seemed to be bracing for further fallout in Toll Brothers. Two of the top trades of the day included 2,218 June 20 puts traded ask-side of the bid-ask spread for $3.90 while 2,218 June 15 puts traded bid-side for $1.95. The activity has all the characteristics of a substantial bear put spread and one that makes its best profits if TOL falls to $15 or less by June options expiration. Bearish trading also surfaced in Tiffany (TIF), Lennar (LEN), DH Horton (DHI), Autonation (AN), and the iShares China Xinhua Index Fund (FXI).