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You Are Here: Home > Articles > Commentary > Morning Options Talk, Jan 6, 2009

Morning Options Talk, Jan 6, 2009
Jan 06, 2009

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Frederic Ruffy

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Early indications point to a steady open ahead of economic data Tuesday morning. Less than an hour before the opening bell, stock index futures hint at a possible 60-point gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the open. The NASDAQ is indicated 15 to 20 points higher.


Economic news will come into focus with a report on factory orders and the ISM Services Index due out at 10:00 a.m. ET. Economists expect the factory goods report to show a decline of 2.6 percent in November, which follows a 5.1 percent decline the month before. The ISM Services Index is expected to hold steady around 37 in December.

Investors will also scrutinize the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee [FOMC] meeting, which will be released this afternoon. Of particular interest will be the Fed’s longer-term view for the economy now that officials have cut short-term rates to almost zero.

Bonds are lower ahead of the news. The benchmark ten-year Treasury lost 20/32nd in early pit trading. The ten-year now yields 2.545 percent.

The dollar continues its recent rebound, trading up 1.10 to 94.34 on the yen. The euro slipped back to 1.3388 on the US currency.

Crude is up $1.40 to $50.21 a barrel today and gold edged down $9.10 to $848.70 an ounce.

Among the stocks to watch, Mosaic (MOS) shares are higher after the company reported quarterly earnings of $1.53 per share, which topped analyst estimates by a dime. Monsanto (MON) might see action ahead of an earnings release due out before the market tomorrow. Apple Computer (AAPL) is higher ahead of the MacWorld expo in San Francisco and after Oppenheimer upgraded shares to Outperform from Perform.

In the options market, investors seemed little concerned about the 80-point loss in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Monday. The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) finished down .11 to a three-month low of 39.08. Roughly 5.9 million calls and 4.8 million puts traded across the seven US options exchanges.

Chesapeake (CHK) call options were actively traded, as some investors appeared to react to renewed takeover chatter. Exxon Mobile (XOM) is interested in Chesapeake Energy, according to the unsubstantiated speculation that made the rounds Monday. Shares finished up 86 cents to $18.13 and 42,000 CHK calls traded on the day, compared to 15,000 put options. Bullish trading was also seen in Cadence Design (CDNS), Microsoft (MSFT), and NVDIA (NVDA).

Logitech International (LOGI) options volume jumped to 16 times the average daily levels Monday, amid increasing interest in Feb 15 puts. 2,068 traded, with most of the day’s trades in 300 contracts or less and hitting at the offer for $1.30 and $1.35. Open interest increased from 1,166 to 2,436 contracts, suggesting opening put buys. Shares are down 5.3 percent to $15.30 this morning after the company withdrew its earnings guidance and said it could cut 15 percent of its workforce. Bearish order flow also picked up in State Street (STT), Genentech (DNA), and Eastman Kodak (EK).


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