Market commentary for 01/26/2009

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Market commentary for 01/26/2009
Jan 24, 2009

Ivica Juracic

Xpert Stock Trader
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Market commentary for 01/26/2009
Good day!
First I want to tell that I did not disappear. As you can see my sire is down and all faults are on my webmaster and that is reason why I had two weeks forced vacation from site and I still don’t know when it will back, but for now I found solution over my blog. Address is: http://ivica-charts.blogspot.com/ I will post watch lists and commentaries until my site will back. I didn’t have ma emails (because all was on site and I waited my webmaster, again, to sent me that. I hope that soon all will be fixed and I have some plans for future but all will be out on time.
Let’s back to market action. From my last commentary indices back from highs close to previous lows and last several days we can see consolidations at 60 min charts. The DIA is weakest while the QQQQ is strongest what is not strange when we know that technology sector posted several nice earnings last days what influenced on NASDAQ. On the other hands bad news from financial sectors (banks) brought pressure on INDU what we can see on the 60 min chart action. On the 60 min the QQQQ forming rounding bottom pattern, while the DIA forming symmetrical triangle, with lower lows what suggest for possible selling continuation. The SPY is in the middle and when we summary all of them we can see divergence what will increase trading risk next days. I think that situations on the daily and weekly charts are very clear and we can see that indices are in clear down trend with consolidation last day’s. Question is what we can expect next day’s and what risk level we will see. Technically for ideal setup and selling continuation indices need more rest. After eight selling days they need more time for consolidation near lows for low risk break down. On the other hand we can see earlier break down (especially for the DIA chart) what will increase risk. Next support is previous low what will be double bottom pattern on the weekly charts. Another scenario is 60 min break up for lower high on the daily charts and then selling continuation. Of course all is open and we can see strong break up to new highs, but for now charts don’t suggest for that scenario. From risk level view it will be best to see more consolidation days before break down. I think that right now is question, will indices first break up for lower high or they will stay in 60 min range action. What ever will be, for now swing bias will stay with bears.