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You Are Here: Home > Articles > Commentary > Market commentary for 12/29/2008
Market commentary for 12/29/2008
You Are Here:Home > Articles > Commentary > Market commentary for 12/29/2008
Market commentary for 12/29/2008
Dec 28, 2008
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Market commentary for 12/29/2008
Good day!
The news last week continued to be poor. Jobless claims were at a 26 years high, home sales at a 17 year low, the Fed invoked its emergency powers again and the holiday sales came in a dismal -4.0 %. The market sold off 1.7% on very light holiday trading.
Friday gave us another small range day on very low volume. It was expected because it was between the holiday and the weekend and many traders just took an extended weekend. The indices started with a gap up and right after the open the selling pressure started. The gap was filled and for the rest of the day we saw a slow recovery and the indices closed at the highs. It was nice intraday cup pattern. But since the volume was so light and we had another consolidation day on the daily charts. I won’t take Friday's action with any conviction in any direction.
On the 60 min charts I drew consolidation lines and from the commentary, nothing changed. I still see a 50/50 chance in either direction right now. From the 60 min correction the indices can break up and try to get back some of the losses after several down days. It can also use this consolidation as a rest for a selling continuation. Generally, my bias is still short, the question is will we see a bounce before the selling continuation or not. On the daily charts the first resistance will be the 20sma and then the 10sma and after that the 50sma. That shows there are many resistance levels for the indices to get back to the highs. To change my bias I need to see proof and that will be a strong bounce from the 60 min consolidation with a fast pace and large volume. Since next week is again a short week I’m not sure that will be case, but the market is unpredictable so we will see. For a weekly bear flag that I drew before on the weekly indices need to go down soon or the odds for that will decrease.
I don’t expect much from this week. Maybe some action on Monday and Tuesday and then we can close the year. Wednesday and especially Friday will be days with very low volume and action. The action I expect to see will be next year on Monday 5th. In any case I will be here to see that. Conclusion is that I will still be focused for swing shorts and in the mean time I will look for intraday longs. In the case those indices will see more intraday up action. If my bias changes I will let you know in this column.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
The news last week continued to be poor. Jobless claims were at a 26 years high, home sales at a 17 year low, the Fed invoked its emergency powers again and the holiday sales came in a dismal -4.0 %. The market sold off 1.7% on very light holiday trading.
Friday gave us another small range day on very low volume. It was expected because it was between the holiday and the weekend and many traders just took an extended weekend. The indices started with a gap up and right after the open the selling pressure started. The gap was filled and for the rest of the day we saw a slow recovery and the indices closed at the highs. It was nice intraday cup pattern. But since the volume was so light and we had another consolidation day on the daily charts. I won’t take Friday's action with any conviction in any direction.
On the 60 min charts I drew consolidation lines and from the commentary, nothing changed. I still see a 50/50 chance in either direction right now. From the 60 min correction the indices can break up and try to get back some of the losses after several down days. It can also use this consolidation as a rest for a selling continuation. Generally, my bias is still short, the question is will we see a bounce before the selling continuation or not. On the daily charts the first resistance will be the 20sma and then the 10sma and after that the 50sma. That shows there are many resistance levels for the indices to get back to the highs. To change my bias I need to see proof and that will be a strong bounce from the 60 min consolidation with a fast pace and large volume. Since next week is again a short week I’m not sure that will be case, but the market is unpredictable so we will see. For a weekly bear flag that I drew before on the weekly indices need to go down soon or the odds for that will decrease.
I don’t expect much from this week. Maybe some action on Monday and Tuesday and then we can close the year. Wednesday and especially Friday will be days with very low volume and action. The action I expect to see will be next year on Monday 5th. In any case I will be here to see that. Conclusion is that I will still be focused for swing shorts and in the mean time I will look for intraday longs. In the case those indices will see more intraday up action. If my bias changes I will let you know in this column.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
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