Jobless Claims as Percent of Labor Force Fall for 3rd Month in a Row, First Time Since Early 2006 -- MrSwing

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Jobless Claims as Percent of Labor Force Fall for 3rd Month in a Row, First Time Since Early 2006
Jul 05, 2009

Dr. Mark J. Perry

CARPE DIEM
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With June employment data now available, the graph above of Initial Jobless Claims as a Percent of the Labor Force (1975-2009) has been updated to reflect the June labor force of 154,926,000 and the June average for initial unemployment claims (618,187.5 for the 4-week moving weekly average). That measure of initial jobless claims adjusted for the size of the labor force shows that we are currently above the levels of the last two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001), but still far below the levels of the previous three recessions in the mid-1970s and early 1980s.

For current initial jobless claims to reach the peaks of the 1970s and 1980s of about .60% (see chart above), we would have to have initial jobs claims today of about 929,000, or 50% above current levels. By this measure of the employment situation, it seems unlikely we'll get anywhere close to the recessionary levels of the 1970s and 1980s.

See related Scott Grannis post here.