Swing Trading Strategies & Stock Picks Since 2003

Friday, September 3-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Trading in many markets will likely be more active
this morning, in the wake of the much-anticipated
U.S. employment report. However, trading action may
soon taper off as many traders hit the exit door to
get a jump on the Labor Day holiday weekend. Next
week should be an extra important trading week for
many markets. U.S. and European traders will be
back from summertime vacations and the weekend U.S.
holiday, and should be fully focused on markets.
It's my bias that with traders more fully focused
on markets, the economic problems in the U.S. and
Europe will move to the front burner for traders.--
Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high
of 1,098.50 and then at 1,110.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support
for active traders today is located at Thursday's
low of 1,076.60 and then at 1,060.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 1,850.00 and then at
1,862.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 1,834.50 and then at
1,825.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Thursday's low of 10,245 and then more
stops just below support at 10,200. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
Thursday's high of 10,318 and then at 10,350.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are neutral to bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132
27/32 and then at 133 even. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 132 even and then at 131 16/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 19/32--lifetime high
135 19/32--Previous Month's high
134 8/32--second pivot point resistance
133 23/32--4-day moving average
133 22/32--previous day's high
133 21/32--9-day moving average
133 13/32--first pivot point resistance
132 28/32--pivot point
132 19/32--previous day's close
132 13/32--18-day moving average
132 10/32--previous day's low
132 1/32--first pivot point support
131 16/32--second pivot point support
126 7/32--previous month's low
123 30/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
are bearish early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
124.21.0 and then at 125.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at this week's low of
123.30.5 and then at 123.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 2/32--lifetime high
126 2/32--previous month's high
125 5/32--second pivot point resistance
125 2/32--9-day moving average
125 2/32--4-day moving average
124 31/32--previous day's high
124 29/32--18-day moving average
124 27/32--first pivot point resistance
124 21/32--pivot point
124 17/32--previous day's close
124 15/32--previous day's low
124 11/32--first pivot point support
124 5/32--second pivot point support
122 16/32--previous month's low
120 3/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker again in
early trading. Bulls are fading this week. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 83.00 and then at 83.25.
Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of
82.57 and then at 82.25. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading weaker early today.
Trading has turned choppy recently. Bears still
have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. In October crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at Thursday's high of
$75.14 and then at this week's high of $75.58. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at
$74.00 and then at $73.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading. Strong
U.S. export demand continues to support the grain
futures prices. The corn bulls have good upside
near-term technical momentum, while soybeans have
turned choppy and wheat continues to trade choppy
and sideways. Next week, more early harvest
progress reports from the U.S. will garner trader
attention. Very early reports are seeing
disappointing corn yeilds and bigger-than-expected
soybean yields.