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How To Trade Cup and Handle
Jun 07, 2007

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Larry Swing

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Although it didn’t come from the traditional trading patterns, today the cup-and-handle pattern is almost synonymous with the rest of classics. The classic pattern used know by many technical analysts are the triangle, rectangle, head-and-shoulders, pennant, flag, double-bottom[/url] and double-top. These are just a few classical formations that many have come to know. But William O’Neill, founder of Investor’s Business Daily, turned himself from a modest investor to a multi-millionaire, published his book “How To Make Money In Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times or Bad, 3rd Edition”. During his time as investor, he identified a few price patterns of his own to find successful setups. He revealed in his book a few of the pattern he identified, coined and used to profit. We’ve all heard this trading pattern a few times but very few know the characteristics, let alone how to trade it. This pattern usually forms during late stages of the bull markets where corrections tend to be deeper.

Below is an example of a cup and handle.

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In many ways, this pattern looks similar to the ascending triangle where if a trendline is drawn from the low of the cup to the low of the handle, it would resemble like this.

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What are the characteristics of this pattern? Cup-and-handle sometimes can be taken out of context and labeled as cup-and-handle. To properly qualify them, the cup must be round in formation. It is possible it may have some jagged movement such as the above chart, but in general, the length and roundness of the cup confirms the formation. The second factor is the handle must be shorter in time length and price length (see chart below for comparison). The handle does not necessarily be round, but it must have a smaller formation than the cup. If the handle is lower and larger than the cup in width and length, that is not a cup-and-handle formation. For example, the formation of the cup may take between 2-5 months while the handle may take 1-2 months to form. As for the prices, price in the cup formation may be at least two times the range compared to the handle’s range.

What causes this pattern? Before the cup-and-handle established at the top left side of the cup, the prices and new high. It retraced due to some profit-taking. Some of the selling got carried away by the bears, extending it further than normal. However, on higher timeframes, such as weekly or monthly, the trend was still intact. When the selling had subsided, the bulls would slowly move it back to the old high (top right side of the cup or left side of the handle). However, as soon as it reaches near the top, profit-taking commenced again, bear thinking that a double-top has formed. But this time the correction was minor despite the fervent bears, but this time with lower participation (volume) on the correction. This lack of participation encourages the bulls to once again take charge with higher volume as the last part of the handle is forming. Finally, the third attempt (right side of the handle) started with much higher volume than the last rally, indicating that the more bulls are participating. Finally, on the third attempt with much higher volume, prices break through the old high as prices climbed to new highs.

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So how does one trade this setup? When prices approaches the top right of the handle, place a stop buy above that highest of the three highs that formed the cup and handle (shaded gray squares in the chart above). Having this buy stop will have the market take the trade in.

Here are few more examples of what cup-and-handle formations look like. To properly qualify these formations as such, use the general guidelines given above.

 

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This formation can setup for a long or a short (upside down cup-and-handle). Just a little imagination, the formation can give some rewarding feedback. Further research is recommended to fully understand the concept as well as training the eyes to familiarize the pattern when they do occur.

 


...thanks for the trust you've shown in me and my business.

by
Larry Swing
larry@mrswing.com
May the swing be with you...

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