I don't like the way the market has traded since yesterday's close. We have run up and down between 845 and 865 several times and in my experience the market rarely gives you more than one chance to buy near the low. Today there have been several.
So I think we shall see a drop below the overnight low at 825 in the futures which was made on October 27. But I don't think the S&P's will spend more than a couple of hours trading below 825 before a big rally starts. My best guess is that this shakeout low will occur in the 800-10 range.
In the meantime, any rally to 885 would be very bullish and make me abandon my "down to 805" scenario.