Swing Trading Strategies & Stock Picks Since 2003

Many Internet pundits claim that commercial mortgages will be the next shoe to drop in the death spiral (in their opinion) of the U.S. financial system. The Sacramento Bee article linked above shows no evidence of this in the California commercial real estate market.

The California Mortgage Bankers Association shows only 7 deliquent (over 30 days) mortgages out of a total of over 10,000. This gives a delinquency rate of a very low 0.06%. In dollar terms $53.9 million was late out of a total of $96.1 billion.

That does not mean there is not some truly horrendous commercial stuff out there that was packaged up by Wall Street firms and sold as AAA paper. But at this point, a full year after the residential mortgage business collapsed, the commercial side seems to be getting along OK.