CROX Field Research

Greetings from beautiful Fallen Leaf Lake, just southeast of Lake Tahoe.

Long-time readers will remember that, precisely a year ago, I spent a week up here as well. In retrospect, that was an incredible time:

• Investment banks were just off their lifetime highs, but the credit crisis was just starting to rear its gorgeous head, and the market went insane that week (it gives me fond memories of this place)
• Google had just reported earnings the prior Friday (just like this time) and had lost over 40 points (just like this time)
• CROX were everywhere, and the stock was about $75 per share.

And by everywhere, I mean everywhere. 100% of the kids were wearing CROX. I couldn't believe me eyes. And it started to make sense to me that the stock was so lofty.

What about this year? I hardly see any kid wearing CROX. It's insane. It's like foot fashion for kids has done a 180. I bought CROX early last week, and it's up about 15% or so. But I was much happier buying it at $7 than $70. But it just goes to show you how fickle tastes can be, particularly for youngsters.

There's little doubt this is going to be an interesting week. In spite of almost no meaningful economic reports coming out, there is a deluge of earnings. I'm not sure whether to be afraid or excited. I think I'll go with afraid. It's safer.