Swing Trading Strategies & Stock Picks Since 2003

These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions.

For 11/11/2009:

                             $INDU              $SPX              $COMPQ

Monthly Momentum   Positive (OB) Positive(OB) Negative (OB)

Weekly Momentum    Positive Positive Negative

Daily Momentum       Positive (OB) Positive(OB) Positive (OB)

(OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.

Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today's list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 100,000 shares.

Technical difficulties prevented publishing ETFs today. Analysis should be back tomorrow.

The stocks that demonstrated bullish pattern reversals are shown here:

Trading volume continues to be suspect, even with the stocks shown above. Only one made the final cut.

Here is the neural net screen survivor:

                                      Value/Price est.   7 day ATR   %( 7 day ATR)/Close

Note (O): optionable

*Beta greater than 1.5, Volume greater than 1 million shares on a 50-day simple moving average volume basis.

(O) PHI 3.45/1 75% 1.41 1.62 3.01

We are still in an uptrend, but I still remain skeptical of a powerful rally, and if it comes, it may come at a cost of future upside, so be careful out there.

The same warnings apply from the last few days. CYH looked like a decent trade, but volume still looks squirrelly and the net model only based stats on 3 recent trades (I like to see a min of 30 in the sample set). Let's just be patient and not do anything foolish as this market settles out. Remember to keep stops in place, and take profits at appropriate target points if one is swing trading. Protect equity now and one can profit even more in the future.

Take care,

DBB