Swing Trading Strategies & Stock Picks Since 2003

Though not completely set in stone yet, I intend, through this blog, to examine:

1) General market conditions in the three major U.S. stock indexes

2) What I see as major turning points in sectors and in stocks when I see them.

3) A brief but hopefully not too technical explanation of the way I swing trade

4) An occasional analysis of sector or stock that has particular appeal from the long side.

5) As time goes forward, an analysis of sectors or stocks that have particular appeal from the short side (like there is anything else but recently).

I am still working on trading models for ETFs. The biggest problems with those models are:

1) The Spock Factor (not enough data, captain). ETFs as a group are far too young to have (in most cases) 6 or 7 years of data attached to them.

2) The problems associated with gaps that occur because of currency fluctuations in foreign markets. There is a new module for the neural net software I use that supposedly can repair the difficulty in this analysis. I cannot at this point know if it will work, but I've got my credit card ready.

As many of you from the Dallas/Ft.Worth/Austin area know. I use a tremendous amount of Fibonacci pattern analysis, much of which I learned from one of my best friends and the most successful trader I have ever known, Larry Pesavento www.tradingtutor.com. He spends part of this time in Tucson and part of his time in Hong Kong. He is expert in this analysis as well as planetary cycle and Bradley Stock Market analysis.

What do I do differently? I will explain that in a bit more detail later, but I apply some momentum analysis that is related to Welles Wilder's Relative Strength Index http://tinyurl.com/2c5gdo . Fibonacci patterns and momentum are combined in a neural net analytical model of stock charts to come up with basic buy and sell signals, but the primary emphasis is on the BUY signal. One can move stops once a position moves in the positive direction. My principal interest is in buying and then holding the stock through at least a multiday swing if not longer. I tend to buy to endure, and not necessarily to buy and hold.

I am still learning the ends and outs of this blogging software, but I will add video and charts to commentary. I will try to keep the discussion pretty light, but in case it gets involved, get a soft towel to place in front of your desk. Should you fall asleep, you will not receive a concussion.

At any rate, more is coming. I am proud that I was able to actually change the heading of my blog (that is how remedial my knowledge is of that stuff). When I learn how to stick links on this thing, there will be a mound of good information for people who want to read about investing and trading.

That's it for now. I think you will find this interesting.